This morning at the cafe I was speaking with a retired engineer who had earned his fortune saving money and investing in real estate. We were discussing “the world today” and I said that the proliferation of computers and the Internet made programming an increasingly poor career choice unless owned your own intellectual property. I cited the growing success of China and India.
My friend wanted to disagree because more engineers would mean more technology, bigger markets for technology, and a bigger economy in general. All true, but graduates today and American career engineers tomorrow will suffer still.
Drastic growth in engineering labor supply, especially considering extremely low comparative costs of living between China and San Fransisco, will make engineering a commodity. This is especially true for software since the cost of raw materials and transport are effectively zero.
The real power will remain with a few, lucky, niche experts and the people with the power to direct and own the consequences of labor.
The proliferation of computers and the Internet overseas is like the proliferation of guns. Armed with a gun, anyone can be an effective solider. Powerful career soldiers, samurai, were powerful because very few people could fight. When anyone could fight, the samurai, who lived like local lords, lost their power. People with power hate to lose power. In fact, feudal Japan outlawed guns.
But the art of warfare flourished despite the degradation of the fighting class. Without guns, there could be no modern nation-state, no Napoleon, and no World War 2. Power shifted from the fighter to the general to the industrialist.
I see the same tread in software. The people who own the intellectual property and the capital to pay programmers will be powerful, and the practitioners themselves will be marginalized. As a skillset to be rented by the hour, you are only worth as much as the lowest bidder. If you can be replaced, you will be treated as replaceable. The field will flourish, but the average programmer will suffer.
The great irony is that engineers and programmers tend to be nerds. A nerd is by definition socially inept and, much unlike samurai, they tend not to understand power. I don’t recommend artificially preserving the prestige of the American engineering profession like law firms do for lawyers. But I do recommend that skilled programmers today demand equity and ownership of their own intellectual property. An established employer would never agree to such blasphemy. A startup would, especially if you’re a founder.
In the meantime, I both eagerly anticipate the bounties of future technology and pity the suckers who believe that investing in a skill to rent is wise. That it was wise for this century, I think, was a fluke. A fluke like the power of the blue collar labor union.
Learn programming like writing: for yourself. Be a hacker and own something.
PS:
For the people who resent feeling like a “skillset to rent,” what do you think a resume is supposed to communicate? Just something to think about…